The economic reforms in China over the last three decades have heralded a new era of changes and development, stemming in no small part from the input of capital from the West. Low labor costs, few regulations and inexpensive natural resources were stimuli for the rapid growth, and increasing imbalance (belied by the persistently rosy macroeconomic data), of its manufacturing sector. Chinese made products have flooded the international market, with severe consequences, both to China's economy and society, as well as to stable international development and diplomacy. Now is the time for economic and business circles of the West and other democratic identities to recognize the dark side of China's economic development: that, continuing along its present course, there are profound risks and ramifications, not just for Chinese, but also for the planet.

　The growth of manufacturing in China has forcefully altered the economies of countless other countries, including those that have a long tradition of industrial ingenuity. In the first place, the world's unskilled and semi-skilled laborers are finding it increasingly difficult to remain competitive at subsistence wages. In addition, the money diverted from Western into Chinese manufacturing, along with the rampant spending on imported, Chinese-made goods, has resulted in lay-offs, unemployment and increased popular dependence on government handouts. The final and most glaring effect is the dwindling of Western goods production, and the resulting loss of both income and tax revenue.

　These issues are of paramount concern to industrialized economies, but it is Chinese oppression of labor that remains the continuous threat to the global market. Workers are often forced into 12-16 hour workdays, 7 days a week, and wages are meager (and stagnant compared to the growth of the economy) if paid at all. Factories are toxic and unsafe, leading to ever-increasing rates of work-related accident and death (coalmine disasters took the lives of thousands Chinese in every year). Implementing just some of the standards familiar to industrialized nations, such as worker safety, social security and negotiated or minimum wages, would go a long way toward lightening the burden on both the Chinese worker and the international manufacturing economy. Tragically, if Western industrial economies wish to continue to be competitive, either China will have to elevate the status of its workers or else those of the West will continue to be in jeopardy.

　It is incongruous, in a way, that the Marxist diagnosis of bourgeois capitalism would so perfectly fit the arbitrary hierarchy, increased income disparity and corruption that plague a country so resolute in its ideology of Marxism. More investment without political reform can only intensify these traits, leading to the possibility of catastrophic social upheaval. Statistics, in fact, support this ominous trend: China has the problem of rising number of protests and "public order disturbances". In the past a few years, has been over 100,000 a year. Protesters have cited many grievances, including lay-offs, corruption, pollution and unpaid wages, but without an avenue of peaceful negotiation, such as independent workers' unions, strikes and protests continue to be a major risk in the stability of the nation.

　Income disparity continues to be a primary source of social unrest, both in China's cities and in the overwhelmingly poor countryside. The gap between rich and poor has magnified exponentially, and the migration of hundreds of millions of peasants to the cities has intensified that conflict. Among the migrants are Mafias, forced by poverty into organized crime, swindling, drugs, and even human trafficking, contributing to an already over-burdened urban landscape. This, combined with the corruption ingrained in the local and regional political structure and police force, has made China the least stable society in the world.

　The political powers of China have resisted efforts by other governments to trade and manufacture according to free market economy practices, and to curtail corruption and abuse of autocratic rule. Even China's public assurances of change-for admission to the World Trade Organization-are shrouded in doublespeak and unmet promises.  

　Lack of respect for intellectual property rights and a staggering copyright piracy rate of 90% have garnered ire from innovators in the international community, who are now basically excluded from China's huge consumer market. Equally terrifying to Western industrialists is the possibility that production technology can be stolen, resulting in cheaper knock-offs of a product inundating the market.

　Behind these revelations is the sobering reality that the rule of law has proven severely lacking in Chinese politics. In its place is a system in which corruption and bribes are ubiquitous, and the judiciary, in so far as it exists, is too heavily controlled by the Communist Party regime to be an object of recourse.

　The absence of rule of law has several negative consequences to investment in the Chinese economy. First is lowered efficiency. The corruption and bribes that plague the system mean that more foreign money lines the pockets of officials than is directed toward production. One example of where this is most prevalent is in real estate. Resettlement costs, supposedly to persons already living on the site, can be hugely inflated, with most of the money going to well-connected brokers and powerful, wealthy resettlement officials. One of the primary reasons for protest among the poor in China is the lack of reparations given to those resettled for factories, office buildings and shopping malls, etc.

　The second risk in China stemming from the absence of rule of law is that, despite economic liberalization, property can still be seized by the state at any time. Increasingly violent clashes between government forces and Chinese people stem from this fundamental lack of protection for private property.

　Coupled with these is the unreliability of China's financial sector. Its banks, over-burdened by bad debt and non-performing loans (as a result of state control over lending practices) are further troubled by corruption. Last year three of China's banks were caught in bribery, loan fraud and embezzlement scandals, but those were just the most publicized of a system fraught with crises.  Part of the problem in China's banks is that they must pick up the slack of a poorly constructed and state-controlled stock market.

　Political oppression from the authoritarian government affects more than just human rights, the shooting of protesters and unaccountable leaders. Communication necessary for public health, social stability and government transparency are severely limited. Journalists are given a very short rein on the mainland, and it is even more difficult for foreign journalists to find out what is really going on. As a result, the flow of information that might be relative to an investment, economic status or even human lives can be hindered.

　More than ever, foreign businesses are forced to compromise their integrity by doing business with the communist regime, well known incidents included business giants such as Yahoo! and Google. Yet, the Western governments is so overwhelmed by the lobbying effort from big businesses that they have not come to the full realization of the risk and loss their own societies would be suffered altogether of from these kind of practice and the global terrorists also reached their goals of pushing these nations lean to lost of their own civil liberty in a similar fashion.

　More than protests or inhumane labor treatment, pollution and environmental degradation are almost certainly the greatest crises facing China's growing economy today. Respiratory diseases from bad air are the number one cause of death in China, and acid rain has affected areas as far as Korea and Siberia as well as a third of its own citizens. Over-logging has caused the rapid desertification of the northern and western parts of the country, leading to dust storms that sweep across the heavily populated coast and other countries' major urban areas. Another detrimental effect of logging is erosion: in the south, flooding has become increasingly devastating and frequent because of it. China's thirst for wood has already put a strain on logging in Indonesia, inciting unlawful forest destruction and risks to threatened species. The pollution of rivers (as much as 70% are polluted from industrial and agricultural wastes) affects other countries in the region, including Russia, Burma, Laos and Cambodia. Water shortages continue to exacerbate an already desperate situation for peasants across China, leading to more and more urban migration and social unrest.

　Altogether, yearly costs to the Chinese economy in reduced health and productivity from pollution and other environmental problems have been pegged at 8% of GDP, or roughly the economy's annual growth.

　Greenhouse gas emissions are, of course, the environmental problem with not just regional, but worldwide global-warming consequences. Arrived decades before experts predicted, China's total CO2 emissions has already surpassed that of E.U., even the United States.

　All these problems are the direct result of the lack or impotence of Chinese law and the blind pursuit of short-term wealth. In the West we must face the reality that huge quantities of inexpensive imported products do have a cost; one that ultimately stems from the lack of effective regulation over Chinese enterprise.

　The environmental damage leveled upon China and its people is in no small part due to the energy demands of its economy and the relative inefficiency of its industry (consumption is 3 to 5 times that of developed nations when compared to GDP). Thus, as China grows, it must maneuver for greater control of natural resources, increasing competition and raising energy prices worldwide. The situation will become increasingly ripe for conflict, unless Western nations can devise effective ways of limiting China's demand for energy.

　World energy shortages, however, are not the only one route to conflict in Asia. Besides Taiwan, China has had quarrels with several neighbors over borders, cultural alliances and territorial waters, any of which could become a flash point for China's growing armed forces. Taiwan and trade, however, are the primary reasons introduce threats to regional security.

　Trade disputes (over issues such as shipping lanes in the South China Sea and Middle Eastern oil) will likely grow as China's wealth and influence provide greater opportunity for audacity. Between democratic countries, these disputes would most likely be resolved in negotiation, but China's political system is based on the teachings of Mao: "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun."  The Communist government established itself as the ruler in China by following these doctrines, but the Chairman could not have imagined the scale of weaponry involved when he wrote that in 1939: General Zhu ChengHu of the People's Army once insisted that nuclear weapons may be used in the event of conflict over Taiwan, as well as advocated the need and capacity for China to destroy hundreds of the US cities, and took over most of the Asia, partially due to its own failed one-child policy, and other problems including the ones resulted from this deformed economic growth.

　Furthermore, China's need for external conflict can equally be stimulated by forces within the country. The ruling party is facing ever-increasing dissent from inside its borders, and confronts the growing need to reassert its legitimacy. Governments in this position have often resorted to military might to build nationalism and to redirect attention from flaws in their own economic and political systems. China's record on this policy question is not promising. It has started wars in Korea (to legitimize the Party shortly after it came to power), India (during the famines of the Great Leap Forward), Russia (during the unrest of the Cultural Revolution) and Vietnam (as Deng Xiaoping filled the power vacuum left by the deceased Chairman Mao). The lesson is clear: it doesn't take an outside threat to rouse China to war.

　In sum, we have a rapidly industrializing autocracy surrounded by potential enemies, still indignant over wars a generation ago and laying claims to neighboring territories. China today and Germany on the eve of World War I have these in common, but the brutality of the Chinese government is much more akin to that of Germany on the eve of World War II.

　In the face of the threat from a volatile dictatorship of armed conflict over Taiwan, energy resources or national pride, European powers must recognize the need to continue their arms embargo. Should a war break out with the help of these European weapons, it would threaten Taiwan's democracy, the balance of power in Asia and worldwide political stability; it would be a disaster for China, Asia, Europe and the planet.

　It is important for all of us to realize and to remember that the current Chinese economy is irregular, anti-free-market, manipulated by authoritarian policies and presents an extremely high risk. Should major political, social or economic problems arise within China, it could completely collapse, ushering in a world economic crisis of a magnitude well above that of Thailand's financial crisis in the 1990s -- heavy investment in China has resulted in heavy reliance on China. The rapid growth of China's economy and trade, as structured by the Communist Party, presents major concern for the fate of the world economy, and the specter of war imperils the security of humanity.

　The allure untapped riches in China is shrouded in the stink of temptation reminiscent of the events of a tragic folk tale of the Han Dynasty. In the folk tale, a beautiful peasant woman is wooed by the powerful Qin Emperor after his harsh Great Wall construction project killed her husband. She relents after he promises to give her husband a burial fit for the Emperor's father. But after the funeral, the wife, without warning, sacrifices herself to the waters of a nearby river.

　China is in the midst of a similar tragic conflict, between the entrenched hierarchy of the political structure and the temptation for material wealth that has perverted cultural traditions and threatened both its citizens and foreign nations.

　We must continue to hope that, in the face of such turmoil, our values of world peace, freedom and economic stability are not whisked away by the current and left to drown. We must work together to prevent this kind of tragedy.  In particular, the business community of the West must take notice of the dark side of Chinese economic growth, to take necessary measures before it is too late.

中國經濟的黑暗面，及其對國際安全與世界生態的影響

　　中國近三十年來的經濟改革已經進入了變化和發展的新階段，其中很大的一個原因是由于西方的投資。廉價勞力，不健全的規章制度，廉價的自然資源都促進了這個迅速增長，同時也增加了製造業發展的不平衡。這些是從持續很久了的表面上很漂亮的宏觀經濟學的資料所能看到的資訊。然而，中國製造的産品大量涌入國際市場，不僅給中國經濟和社會帶來了一系列嚴重後果，而且還給穩定的國際發展和外交政策帶來嚴重影響。現在是西方及其它民主國家經濟界和商界認識到中國經濟發展的黑暗 面的時候了：也就是說，沿著這條路走下去，將把中國人民和全球都帶入一個極其危險的境地。 

　　中國製造業的發展已經迫使許多國家，包括那些有著長期正規工業體系傳統的國家，經濟狀况的改變。首先，那些沒有技術或技術不高的工人感到即使他們工資微薄足以生存而已，却還是越來越難以和更廉價的勞力競爭。第二，資金從西方流向中國製造業的同時，西方國家却大量花錢進口中國製造的物品，它引起公司解雇職員，失業率上升，以及對政府救濟政策的更大依賴。第三也是最明顯的是，它造成了西方國家製造業的萎縮，結果是個人收入和國家稅收都因此减少。

　　這些工業經濟方面的嚴重問題，是由于中國對勞工的壓迫實際上給國際市場帶來的連續不斷的威脅。在那裏，工人們通常不得不一周七天不斷地、每天工作12-16小時，即使他們能及時得到他們的工資，其數量也相當低廉（對比經濟增長而言幾乎沒有增加）。工廠通常條件惡劣，毒品泄露，安全程度低下，在工傷事故及死亡人數方面，比例持續上升。每年僅煤礦工業方面的事故就造成數千中國工人的死亡。那些西方工業國家早已成規的福利，比如工人安全條例，社安保險金，最低工資額限定等，在中國則是望之末及的，無宜于减輕中國工人和國際製造業經濟的負擔。可悲的是，如果西方工業經濟，比如德國和美國，希望和中國競爭，那麽只有兩種情形：要麽中國提高工人的待遇，要麽西方工人繼續陷入其絕境。

　　可笑的是，馬克思主義者有關的資本主義的分析正是當今中國，這個以馬克思主義爲意識領域而建立的國家，正在發生著的現實 -- 中國社會已分化成不同的階級，日益嚴重的貧富不均和腐化現象橫掃全國。實際上，缺乏政治改革的更多投資只能加重這個趨勢，進而把社會引向慘絕人寰的社會動亂。統計資料反映了這個不祥的趨勢。這些年來，示威和"擾亂治安"的事例年年升高，每年一超過100,000案例。示威者表達了他們對社會現象的悲憤，比如下崗，腐化，環境污染和拖欠工資等等。由于沒有和平協商的途徑（如獨立工會），罷工和示威將會成爲中國社會不穩定的重要因素。

　　在中國城市及其貧困的農村，貧富不均依然是社會動蕩的主要因素。貧富懸殊的差距越來越大，數億農民流入城市，加重了這個差距所造成的衝突。流民中的黑社會多是貧窮所逼迫下成立的犯罪集團，他們局騙、 販毒、甚至販賣人口，給負擔已經沈重的城市增加混亂。加上各個階層政府、警察的腐化，中國已經成爲世界上最不穩定的社會。
  
　　中國的政治權力阻礙了其他國家按照自由市場的做法進行貿易與製造，幷保護了腐化現象，加重了極權的蹂躪。甚至中國在加入世貿組織時的公共保證也不過是漂亮却做不到的諾言而已。

　　中國缺少對知識産權的尊重、盜版率高達90% 的情形引起了國際激憤，使得國際社會不得不拒絕中國這個巨大的市場。給西方工業社會帶了的同樣震撼是，所有的生産技術都可能被盜用，結果是大量的廉價冒牌貨充斥市場。

　　這個現象背後的嚴重現實是中國的政治體制缺乏法治。整個社會腐敗和賄賂業已成風，而目前存在的法律系統，完全被共產黨獨裁政權一手控制，成爲禦用工具。

　　缺少法制和規章制度，給對中國經濟的投資帶來了若干負面後果。首先它降低了工作效率。由于腐化和賄賂腐蝕了社會，更多的外幣流向的是政府官員的腰包，而不是直接用于生産。房産業方面的情形是最爲廣泛而典型的例子。爲新建企業而不得不支付的居民搬遷費，本應歸屬原本住在那裏的人，但價格却不可信，大多數錢進了有人際網、有權利的富裕的拆遷管理官員手中。現今中國窮人抗議的最主要原因之一就是因爲那些因大造工廠、辦公樓和商場而失去家園的拆遷戶沒有得到合理的賠償。

　　缺乏法制的第二個危險是，儘管經濟開放，國家依舊可以隨時將私産充公。私人財産的任意侵占，使百姓和政府之間的暴力對抗升級。

　　與之對應的是中國不穩定的財政部門。由于政府控制借貸，造成銀行承受著過量的欠款或情形惡劣的貸款。而這種情形又因腐敗而日趨加重。中國銀行業的問題之一是他們必須在政府控制的股票市場以及糟糕的結構中周旋。

　　官方政府的政治壓迫不僅僅表現在人權方面，比如槍殺示威者及許多領頭反抗的人士，而且表現在嚴重影響了必要的資訊通暢，社會安定和政府的透明度。在中國大陸，記者手脚被束縛得非常緊， 而外國記者就更難探聽到真相。結果是，有關投資、經濟狀况乃至大衆生計的資訊流通就被堵塞了。

　　更進一步，許多外國企業也被迫改變經營原則以屈就共產黨政權，曝光較多的雅虎和穀歌的事例就是明證。然而，西方政府被大公司的游說左右著，他們還沒有充分意識到這一系列行動對其自身社會所帶來的危險與損害。與此同時，全球性的恐怖分子也在推動這些國家本身以類似的方式逐漸失去其民權自由的目標。

　　除了示威抗議浪潮及對勞工的不人道待遇，中國目前經濟發展所面臨的最大危機可以算是環境污染和惡化。由于空氣混濁而流行的呼吸道疾病在中國是爲第一殺手。酸雨擴及到朝鮮和西伯利亞地區，幷給三分之一的公民帶來危害。中國北方和西部地區的亂伐樹木造成沙暴流行，嚴重影響了東海岸人口密集的城市和其他大城市。亂伐樹木的另一個危害是侵蝕，南方的水灾因此泛濫頻繁。中國急缺木材造成印度尼西亞開始亂伐樹木，非法破壞了那裏的森林結構，威脅其他生物的生存。中國河水污染嚴重，其中70%的污染來自工業農業的廢水，幷造成對那一帶的國家包括俄國，緬甸，老撾，柬埔寨的污染。中國缺水問題越來越嚴重，尤其危及的是中國農民的生存：這也促使他們大量遷徙到城市、造成社會的不穩定。

　　總之，以污染及其它環境問題爲代價而降低了的人民健康與生産率所得到的中國經濟的年增長率實際上很低。

　　溫室效應的氣體排出所帶來的環境問題不僅僅是區域性的，更是全球性的。中國二氧化碳的排出已經超過了歐盟甚至美國，比專家們預計提前了數十年。

　　所有上述問題，都緣由于中國缺少强有力的法律制度，盲目追求短期豐饒效應。西方必須面對大量進口廉價物品實際上是很昂貴的這個現實，它是中國企業缺乏有效的規章制度的産物。

　　由于經濟發展需要能源以及工業效率低下（與發展國家同等 GDP相比，中國消耗了3至5 倍多的資源），中國的環境破壞給中國及其人民所造成的損失非同小可。隨著中國的經濟發展，它將不得不尋求對自然資源的更進一步的控制，使得競爭更加激烈，幷造成全球能源價格上漲。西方國家若不找到有效途徑限制中國對能源的需求，這個情形將進一步導致衝突。

　　世界能源短缺幷不是在亞洲可能出現爭端的唯一根源。除了臺灣以外，中國曾和幾個鄰國爲了水源、邊界、民俗等問題有過爭執，其中任何之一都可能會成爲中國動用它不斷增長的軍隊的導火索。而臺灣與貿易將是中國對該區域的安全造成威脅的主要由來。

　　貿易來往方面的爭端，比如中國南海的運輸綫和中東石油的運輸綫之爭，將會隨著中國財富和影響力的增長而使中國更加膽敢予以挑戰。民主國家之間的爭端通常通過協商來解决，而中國的政治系統則基于毛澤東的策略：槍杆子裏面出政權。共產黨因爲遵循這條原則成爲了中國的統治者，但是毛澤東在 1939年寫下這條策略的時候，他自己大概都無法想象多大的武力將會被使用：中國人民解放軍的朱成虎將軍曾表明幷揚言，中國可能會使用核武器來解决問題，如臺灣的問題以及中國可以摧毀美國的幾百座城市，占領大部分亞洲地區，等等。而他所提出的這些動機的緣由竟歸罪于中國自身的獨生子女政策的失敗，及其它的各類問題包括經濟畸形增長中所出現的問題。

　　進一步地，中國的對外衝突亦可能因內部衝突而發。面臨日益增長的境內的异議力量，統治政黨要進一步設法確認其合法地位。通常在這個位置上的政府會動用武力，煽動民族主義，將人們的注意力從本國的政治經濟問題方面轉移開來。中國在這方面的記錄已經有所佐證。它在奪取政權不久就爲了鞏固政權而發動朝鮮戰爭，而在“大躍進”之後出現了大饑荒後立即向印度開火，然後是文革高潮期挑起中蘇邊境之爭，而鄧小平在毛澤東去世以後上臺不久，就發動了中越戰爭。教訓很清楚：中國走向戰爭不需要外部的威脅。

　　總的說來，中國發展迅速的工業極權是由一群可能的敵人所掌握的，他們仍然持有上代人遺留的仇恨，幷認爲擁有有爭執的領土。中國的今天和德國的一次世界大戰前夜有相當的類似之處，而中國政府却比二次世界大戰前夜的德國政府要心狠手辣得多。

　　面對中共極權的對台武力威脅、能源問題，以及自我膨脹氣焰的實際威脅，歐洲政府一定要認識到歐洲必須堅持其對中國的武器禁運。一旦中國利用歐洲提供的軍備發動戰爭，這將威脅臺灣的民主，破壞亞洲的權力平衡及全球的政治穩定，這對中國，亞洲、歐洲和全球都是一個巨大的灾難。

　　我們必須認識幷且記住，今天中國的經濟增長是不正常的、違反自由市場規律的、是被政治極權者所控制的，因而危險極大。倘若中國內部發生重大政治、社會或經濟動亂，中國經濟就可能迅速崩潰，給世界經濟帶來衝擊，幷在幅度上完全超過９０年代泰國的金融崩潰。西方國家在中國大量投資意味著他們將大量地依賴于中國。在中共建築下的中國經濟和貿易的快速增長，給世界經濟帶來的前景是憂人的，而戰爭的鬼影則更嚴重地危及了人類的安全。

中國未被開發的富裕所帶來的吸引力，被籠罩在誘惑的擔憂之中。這讓人聯想起漢朝的悲劇傳說。傳說中的一位美麗農婦在丈夫修築長城身亡以後，受到權勢極大的秦皇帝的追求。在皇帝向她保證她的亡夫可以得到皇帝父親般的葬禮後，這女子鬆口了。但在葬禮之後，她却出乎意料地跳進附近的激流裏自殺了。

　　中國也處在類似的悲劇衝突之中，處在維護現有政治結構與財富的誘惑之間，而財富的誘惑已經衝擊了文化傳統，幷給本國與國外的人民都帶來威脅。

　　但我們在面對如此的動蕩時仍然寄予希望，希望我們所珍重的世界和平、自由和經濟穩定不會因此被悲劇中的激流所衝擊幷淹沒。 因此，我們必須共同努力來防止這種悲劇。特別是:我們希望西方及其它民主體系的商界注意到中國經濟發展的黑暗面，在還來得及的時刻采取必要的行動。