To learn about the democratic future of China, we need to make an analysis of this country, as well as to understand the international environment. Then we could learn both favorable and disadvantaged conditions for us, thus to guide our actions.

　　The current social characteristic for both China is that although it has transformed into bureaucratic monopoly capitalist state, it is somehow different from Russia and Eastern Europe. The biggest difference is that it is still under the Communist Party's one-party dictatorship. Without competition in a multi-party system, China lacks the more relaxed environment for speech and publications that both Russia and East Europe have. In China, it is very hard for the opposition to survive inside the country, and the opposition overseas has much more difficulty to participate in the politics inside. Thus, it produces a big predicament for us.

　　The special agencies of the Communist Party have become very effective. With the disjunction of inside and outside, it plants their agents, misguides our directions, sows dissension, and even leads the opposition into its traps. This makes a transformation or revolution facilitated by a united opposition that is well organized and well planned very difficult. At the current stage, the main form of opposition is by the people on their own with their decentralized action against the tyranny and economic ultra-exploitation. The public media are the main tool to mobilize the people. Traditional secretive organizations could only have small-scale operations. The overall mobilization of the people could only depend on mass communication tools. This is why the Chinese Communist regime pays great attention to block the information of both news media and the Internet.

　　On the other side, due to the lack of basic human rights, the exploitation and suppression by the combined effort from the government officials and business become ever more stark, thus resulting in even stronger opposition. So the transformation forces of China are mainly from the middle and lower classes. The ways of transformation are not just limited to peaceful ones. Violent opposition often becomes the main force that impels societies to change. Also due to the intimate connection of government officials and business, the government has lost its judging position over business disputes. The internal fights within the governments have become even more violent than at any other times and circumstances. The surfacing of the criminal underworld and personal military have become a new routine in assisting political struggle, thus making the society even less stable and more complicated.

　　In the past a few decades, the international environment has been very unfavorable to the opposition forces of countries such as China. The "China Model" invented by Deng XiaoPing was able to buy out the Western capitalists in the way of sharing the cheap labor, thus indirectly controlling the politics and academics of the West. It was able to force the mainstream society of the West to surrender themselves to the interests of the Communist Party and give up their value systems. This has resulted in the West continuing its economic blood transfusion to the Communist countries and taking tolerant and appeasement policies toward the new style bureaucratic capitalists of the Communist Parties. During the 16 years of US President Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, this policy of appeasement reached its peak. The relationship between the Western democracy and Asian dictatorship transformed from confrontation, to tolerance, to open cooperation. The overseas opposition forces of China became thorns in the eyes of the politicians of these democratic countries. Using the words of a well-known American scholar on the left: "these anti-Communist pro-democracy activists do not meet the main ideology stream of America".

　　However, now the situation is changing. Although the appeasement policy still occupies the mainstream, the west economy is in recession due to its blood transfusion to the Communist countries over more than one decade. The so-called "free market economy" theory lost its battle against the not free market economy. While the business people of both West and East made super profits, the wage and salary earners did not get the benefit of the economic development. Instead of expansion, the market shrank, which is the root cause of the global economic recession. Thus, the Western countries started to realize this historic mistake and naturally will take measures to correct it. They should give up their appeasement policies with the Communist government, and restart a new confrontation and competition. They should start their confrontation from market protection first.

　　This change is the exterior condition that may force the new bureaucratic capitalist system of the Communist Party to reform, or to collapse. The overseas opposition has a main task beyond continuously using the media for positive mobilization of democracy and freedom. This new task, in cooperation with a market protection policy by the democratic countries, will be opposing the nationalism that will be mobilized by the Communist Party naturally. By borrowing the power from the international society, we could push for the reforms of the redistribution system, or political revolution in our own countries. This trade battle will not benefit the bureaucratic capitalism; yet will only be beneficial to the waged and salary workers and private capital of our countries, which is the best measure to push for democratic revolution and to avoid the disordered insurrection.

　　Finally, let me make it clear, under an environment without basic free speech and free media, yet with a matured economic system of bureaucratic capitalism, the so called "color revolution of peace, rational and non-violence" could be only a trick of deceive; to the best is a good fantasy that cannot be realized.

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　　為了瞭解中國的民主化前途。我們先要分析現狀。還必須知道中國現在所處的國際環境。然後找出有利的和不利的條件，用以指導我們的行動。

　　中國現在的社會性質，雖然早已轉型?官僚壟斷資本主義，但是和俄羅斯、東歐的情?有所區別。最大的區別就是仍然由共產黨一黨專政，而沒有多黨的競爭。因此也沒有俄羅斯和東歐的寬鬆的言論和出版方面的環境。反對派在國內很難生存，海外的反對派也很難直接參與國內的政治。這就造成了一個很大的困境。

　　共產黨的特務機關在對付反對派上變得十分有效。他們可以利用內外之間的脫節，安插人手，誤導方向，挑撥離間，甚至指揮反對派誤入陷阱。有組織的、有計劃的，由聯合的反對派促成的變革或革命。在這種情況下很難操作。人民自覺的，分散的反抗暴政和超經濟剝削的行動。至少是當前階段的主要形式。大眾傳媒是動員群眾的主要工具，傳統的密謀組織的方式只能小規模的操作。整體思想的動員只能依靠大眾傳播工具。這就是中共特別重視新聞和電腦媒體封鎖的原因。

　　另一方面，由于缺少起碼的人權，官商結合的剝削和壓迫也更加赤裸裸。激起的反抗也更加?烈。所以，中國的變革動力主要來自社會的中下層。變革的方式則不僅僅是和平的，人民被迫的暴力反抗，將成?促使社會不得不變化的主要的動力。同樣因?官商結合，官方失去了裁判者的地位，參與到商業糾紛中。官方的內鬥比任何時候和情?下更?激烈，黑社會和私人武裝的出現成?輔助政治鬥爭的新事務，也造成了社會更加不穩定，更加複雜。

　　 前幾十年的國際環境對中國的反對派非常不利。鄧小平發明的所謂"中國模式"，靠分享廉價勞動力收買了西方資產階級，間接地控制了西方政治和學術，使西方主流社會放棄了價值觀而屈從于共產黨的利益。在經濟上為共產黨國家輸血；在政治上對共產黨的新型官僚資產階級采取容忍和綏靖政策。在克林頓和布希執政的十六年裏，綏靖主義發展到最高峰。民主和專制之間的關係從對抗到容忍直到公開合作。中國的海外反對派勢力成了民主國家政客們的眼中釘。用一句美國知名左派學者的話說；這些反共的民主派人士"不符合美國主流意識形態"。

　　 現在情況正在發生著變化。雖然綏靖主義仍然占有主流地位，但十幾年來向共產黨國家輸血已經造成了西方經濟的衰退。所謂的自由市場經濟理論在和不自由的市場經濟的較量中失敗了。東西方的商人們賺到了超額的利潤；東西方的工薪階層沒有得到經濟發展的好處。市場不是擴大了而是萎縮了，這就是當前全球經濟衰退的根本原因。因此，西方國家正在認識到這個歷史性的錯誤。必然會采取補救措施：放棄綏靖主義；重新開始對抗和競爭。而且首先會從市場保護開始對抗。

　　 這是迫使共產黨新的官僚資產階級體系改革或者崩潰的外部條件。海外反對派除了繼續利用媒體作正面的民主自由的思想動員外。最主要的任務，就是推動和配合民主國家的市場保護政策。抵制共產黨必然會發動的民族主義。借助國際社會的力量，推動自己國家內部的分配制度改革或者政治革命。除了不符合官僚資產階級的利益外，這場貿易戰對各國的工薪階層和私人資本都是有利無害，而且是推動民主革命和避免無序的暴動的最佳手段。

　　 最後說明。在沒有起碼的言論和傳播自由的環境下，在經濟體系已經成熟的官僚資本化的前提下。所謂的"和平理性非暴力的?色革命"，如果不是騙人的伎倆。也只能是個良好但不能實現的幻想。